10. June 2009 by admin.

That’s the headline on this article at CNN. 200 million displaced by 2050. I’m betting that’s an understatement. The article lays this figure at the feet of two devils - salt water and fresh water. The salt water level (sea level) will rise, displacing many people (10 million in Bangladesh alone). The fresh water, on the other hand, will become scarcer as more and more people move from the country to the cities, and as climate patterns change and reduce rainfall in many areas. Yes, our days are numbered.

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3. May 2009 by admin.

I’m in the process of installing the Windows 7 Release Candidate on one of my Media Center PCs. I initially nuked that PC, since it had the Windows 7 beta already. I installed Vista Ultimate, let it download a ton of updates, then installed the latest nVidia video drivers. I then inserted the Windows 7 DVD and ran Setup.

The first thing I noticed was a message stating “Windows Vista Ultimate Extras have been discontinued and will no longer be available after upgrading to Windows 7″. This, of course, would be the long-promised extra features for Ultimate users. Long-promised but never delivered. So…we paid extra for Ultimate…why?

Maybe now is the time to start a movement. A movement to upgrade all Vista Ultimate users to Windows 7 for free. After all, Windows 7 is rumored to be “all that Vista should have been”. We paid extra, waited for the Extras, and got…diddly. We deserve a free upgrade.

Stay tuned for updates…

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17. April 2009 by admin.

I applaud President Obama’s plan to create a high-speed rail network across America, but I see several problems with it. One problem is - it won’t cross America.

The current plans include rail between Boston, New York City, Washington DC, and over to Chicago and St. Louis. Another corridor will be built in California. However, there is no coast-to-coast connection. That’s because they want the largest number of passengers per mile, as they feel that is the only way to offset the astronomical cost. I think they’re going about it wrong.

There are basically two existing high-speed rail technologies. The one in use extensively in Europe and Japan uses steel rails and can reach 200 miles per hour. The other one, used only in demos until Shanghai built one to its airport is magnetic levitation.

Sadly, maglev trains are very expensive, as is their track. Steel rails are much cheaper, but they also have issues regarding the layout of their track. Since most rails are at grade, they often have issues with things getting on the track that should not be there (cows, cars, people, etc.).

I’d like to propose an alternative, that will be cheaper to build, cheaper to operate, and use real-estate in a more responsible manner. This system would use a combination of monorail and traditional steel rails.

Imagine, for a moment, an elevated two-lane road. One traditional and inexpensive way to build it is to have a series of T-shaped concrete poles to support the roadway. The roadway itself is constructed of prestressed concrete segments, sometimes poured onsite, other times poured elsewhere and trucked in. The hybrid monorail can be built with the same technology - a series of towers connected by the monorail track. I presume each tower would support two tracks, for complete bidirectonal transportation.

Elevating the track accomplishes several things. First, it makes it virtually impossible to ever have a collision with a foreign object. Second, it disturbs the existing real-estate and ecosystem less than traditional track. Finally, it is relatively immune to the accumulation of water during floods and snow during blizzards, allowing true 24×365 transit regardless of conditions.

The track would consist of a concrete rectangle, maybe two feet across by four feet tall. On the sides of the track, about half-way down, will be steel rails, one on each side, mounted at a 45-degree upward angle. These will mate with each car’s steel wheels, also mounted at a 45-degree angle. Above each rail will run a metal contact for power transmission. I will try to upload a cross-section diagram in a later post.

Tracks would be made in standard sizes, a given length either straight or curved at a specific percentage. Since they are little more than concrete with embedded steel, we should be able to make them at a moderate price despite needing to make them to exact tolerances. Since the entire track has power available, it will be easy to embed various sensors and wireless network access. We could even embed a GPS sensor in each end of a segment, allowing us to know if any segment moves (i.e., in an earthquake or other destructive action).

We can learn a lot from the European trains as well. For instance, the latest generation puts motors in each truck, rather than at the ends of the train. They also use permanent magnets instead of copper coils, reducing power use. When they brake, they regenerate electricity and feed it back into the grid. Instead of using two trucks per car, they have one truck between each car - reducing the power needed as well as the train’s weight.

This hybrid monorail concept should be as fast as today’s trains in Europe, as well as much safer, much cheaper to build, and less construction hassle than regular rail. Central computer control would allow smaller trains to run more frequently, which would also result in shorter stop times. I could easily see a train like this running from Kansas City to Denver (650 miles) in four hours, with several stops en route. An hour of train travel west of Denver would get us to numerous ski areas and would reduce the hassle and cost of ski vacations substantially. Equally important would be the resulting reduction of pollution and greenhouse gasses, since few existing trains and cars in America are electric.

With the cost of track down to a comfortable per-mile figure, we could easily expand the network. We could, in many cases, use right-of-way inside existing interstates, allowing cross-country passage to the south (I-10, I-40) and north (I-70, I-80, I-90). Since so much of the west is empty, there won’t be stops every ten minutes like there might be in an east coast corridor. This system will not help the average coast-to-coast business traveler, since the crossing would take at least 20 hours, but it would certainly be a solid alternative for families.

I will take a closer look at this concept in future posts.

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7. April 2009 by admin.

One thing humanity can expect from climate change is disruption of supply and production of food. At some point, you will become more and more responsible for your own food. This is where gardens come in handy.

OK, you think, no big deal. I’ll get a book on gardening and a bunch of seeds and I’m good to go if things get bad.

Wrong! When you finally get around to planting your garden, you’ll find that the seeds have gone bad. Yes, seeds have a shelf life. It can be extended by freezing them, but I assume that if you need to grow a garden to eat, you may not have enough electricity to run a freezer.

The bottom line is - start your garden NOW. Don’t wait until you need it to survive. You don’t need to start big, but you do need to start.

The first thing to do is look at a map to see which grow zone you’re in - you can find out more here, here, and here. This will determine which plants you may be able to grow successfully. You can’t grow citrus trees in northern states, for instance, so don’t even bother. Once you know your grow zone, you can find out which plants will work. You might narrow that list further by nutrition content, convenience factor, taste, or any number of other parameters. You should end up with maybe half a dozen or so - this is a good number for your first garden. Know how much space each one needs - carrots can be grown in small spaces but melons spread to take up all available space.

Next, you’ll need to prepare the garden. I can’t offer too much advice here, because everyone’s available space is different. Apartment dwellers will want to plant things that can easily be grown indoors or on a balcony, possibly in plastic tubs. Hanging tomato plants are useful here.

If you have a yard, you have more and better possibilities. There may be many places you could stash a few plants - they don’t all have to be in one bed. I have used both varieties. My first house had the entire back 1/4 of the lot as a garden, with a grape arbor. Another house had two small raised beds (4 x 8 feet each).

Determine how good your soil is, and whether you need to add anything to it. If you have the space, start a compost heap now. It takes it a year or so to accumulate enough rotting vegetation to be useful. Remember to turn it once a week.

The garden we are about to start will be distributed across the yard. We are blessed with nice shade trees, but that limits where I can put plants if I want them to get enough sun. Study where the sun and shadows track across your yard. All plants need a certain amount of sun, but it varies between “a little bit” and “all day”. This will help you decide where to put what.

Many garden items require replanting every year, such as tomatoes, melons, and peppers. Others, such as apple trees, rhubarb, and raspberries, come back stronger every year.

We had particularly good luck with raspberries - we planted just 4 seedlings and within three years had a veritable forest of raspberries.

Pests can be a problem. We’ve had birds eat the strawberries, raccoons eat the corn, and rabbits eat the tomatoes. In some cases you can put up chicken wire around plants, or get a dog, or even spray deer urine to repell pests. In any case, you’ll need to know this before you need to rely on your garden for survival.

Once you have your garden producing, well, produce, then you need to decide what to do with it. If it is a small garden, you may be able to eat enough to keep up with what it produces. Once it gets bigger, you will need to find a way to store the excess for later.

Our grandparents knew how to do this instinctively, but succeeding generations have either forgotten or never learned. You have many options, such as drying and canning. Drying requires a food dehydrator and canning requires a lot of Mason jars. I’ll take a look at these options in detail later.

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17. March 2009 by admin.

It should be obvious that this planet has too many humans. There were 3 billion when I was born (50+ years ago). There are currently 6 billion humans on the planet, and I’ve heard there will be 7 billion within a few years. That’s just too many.

Experts have forecast that the planet could hold 10 billion people. However, there are a lot of caveats to that figure. The problem is not growing food - the planet could easily feed that many people. The problem is, well, people. Africa, for instance, is starving. Not because they cannot get food - the UN and charitable organizations try hard to get food to starving Africans. However, they are generally thwarted by local leaders, rebels, strongmen, and others that seem to think they deserve more than their share. This is a very human problem and I don’t see an easy solution.

I’ve known for years the planet would be better off with far fewer humans. In the past, things like war, starvation, and pestilence limited our numbers. We’ve virtually eliminated pestilence as a major killer. Enough food gets through to those in need to ward off starvation (but not malnutrition and its effects). Finally, war works good but far too few humans are eliminated because of it.

One scientist has gone on record forecasting that climate change will reduce the population to 1 billion. The trick, then, is to make sure you’re one of that 1 billion group. If you live in the US, you stand a fairly good chance of being one of the lucky ones. If you live in Africa, South America, or Asia, your chances are much less.

I don’t see too many other ways to reduce the number of humans on the planet. Ever since the beginning of that “go forth and multiply” doctrine, the world’s religions have promoted having more than the two kids that would replace you and your spouse. Even today, when effects of overpopulation are very visible, the Catholic Church (and others) still refuse to allow their members to use birth control (fortunately, many individuals ignore this). This certainly flies in the face of the new “we are stewards of God’s creations here” thinking.

I only see a few ways to reduce our population, and all of them are painful. Possible choices here might include an impact from a comet or meteorite, climate change, or a change in the earth’s magnetic field. The best option would be for us to voluntarily limit our own reproduction. Sadly, this option is also the least likely for many reasons. We’ll explore this topic further in future posts.

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16. March 2009 by admin.

According to this article, and this article, the East Coast will experience sea levels higher than the worldwide average due to ocean currents. New York may learn what New Orleans did - if you depend on pumps to keep you from flooding, you’re going to be flooded when the power goes out.

And on a similar note, the various experts seem to be in agreement that the climate-change process is “irreversible”. So we’d better learn to adapt, eh?

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13. March 2009 by admin.

Looks like others are making preparations for the effects of climate change. And another article shows me I was mistaken about the effects of sea level rise in California. The article states that a mere 5-foot rise in sea level will affect:

• 3,500 miles of roads and highways
• 330 hazardous waste sites, including several in Alameda, Santa Clara, San Mateo and Los Angeles counties
• 280 miles of railway
• 140 schools
• 34 police and fire stations
• 30 coastal power plants
• 29 sewage-treatment plants, including 22 on the bay and seven on the Pacific Coast
• 2 Bay Area airports: San Francisco and Oakland international

California may be the only state looking this far ahead.

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12. March 2009 by admin.

I’d like to explore the concept of mass migrations, particularly as they might affect the US. There could be several climate-related reasons someone might want to move. For those closest to the coasts, at the lowest elevations, the driving force might be the rising sea level. For those living higher up but still on the coast, storms would trigger migration. For an example of this, look at how Katrina dispersed New Orleans residents all over the South. Other climate-related issues would include drought, floods, mudslides, fires, heat, and cold.

The major risk due to increases in sea level are the Gulf Coast states, Florida, and to a lesser-extent, the Eastern Seaboard. The Western Coast has substantial elevation, and a sea rise of 10 feet would not threaten very many people.

Florida is somewhat of a special case. Most of the state is no higher than 10 feet, even in places many miles inland. Most of the residents of Florida would need to relocate or consider living on houseboats or in upper-floors of taller buildings. It would be difficult if not impossible to provide services to those who refuse to evacuate. Anarchy is a very real possibility there.

So, all of the people near the coast will be moving to the center of the country. Problem solved, right? Not necessarily. While the center of the country won’t be as affected by rising sea levels, it certainly will be (and has been) affected in other ways. As we have seen in the past decade or two, extensive floods are a real possibility. If it’s not floods, it’ll be the opposite - drought. If it’s not too much water or too little, it will be too much heat, or too much cold, or too much wind. Have you noticed that we seem to have more tornados every year, and that “tornado season” starts earlier and earlier?

Many states get their drinking water from the Colorado River. However, a decade of drought across Colorado and Utah have dropped Lake Powell and Lake Mead to half of their former levels, and the long-range forecast doesn’t show those lakes filling up any time soon, if at all. The southwest area of this country will have to learn extreme water conservation, which means giving up on watering your yard or washing your car. Since a lot of Colorado River water is used for food crops, farmers will have to find ways to grow the same crops with less water, or either switch to different crops or quit farming.

We’re rather fortunate in this country - our midsection is both fertile and almost empty of people. There will certainly be room for all of our displaced citizens. But, they’ll have to adapt to the temperature shifts - North Dakota can go from 110 degrees in the summer to -40 degrees in the winter.

While our country can handle the migration, it will certainly strain services as most migrants will need government assistance. Fortunately, our transportation system will insure that people are able to migrate. Other countries won’t be so lucky…

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2. March 2009 by admin.

The subject of this post is what humans need to survive. All of them will in some way be affected by climate change, so we need to examine this in greater detail. To merely survive, humans need food, air, water, shelter, and clothing.

We can dispense with several of these fairly quickly. Clothing, for instance…we do need clothing because we do not have fur. Without clothing, humans would be confined to a smaller area of the planet. With clothing, survival in extreme conditions is certainly possible. Most of us have enough clothing, enough that we could survive for years on the contents of our closets. Granted, there is a sizeable chunk of the population that has no closets, and presumably, few clothes. They will have greater problems than they do now.

Air can also be covered quickly. Yes, we need it, and yes, climate change will affect it. It might make the air cleaner, as precipitation tends to filter out particulates. We certainly need to reduce air pollution, but if survival of human life on this planet depends solely on the air, then we’ve already sealed our death warrant.

Food, water, and shelter will be the big topics and will be examined in later posts. Some food depends on a network of businesses and transporters, while other food comes from your garden or a field just outside of town. If climate change upheaval is serious, the food distribution infrastructure could fail, so we’ll need to examine the concept of growing your own.

Water, again, will be a problem for many. It has been said that over half of the world’s population does not have access to clean water. Clean water is taken for granted in the US, freely available from any tap. Population shifts will strain distribution systems, and changes in rainfall patterns will reduce many inputs.

Shelter is the big one. Current building codes attempt to make dwellings more fire-resistant, but that may not help much if that dwelling is in the path of a forest or brush fire. Likewise, matchstick construction has proven time and again that it cannot stand up to hurricane-force winds. That’s why most Caribbean countries have houses made of concrete blocks, with flat concrete roofs. A good concrete structure can outlast the strongest storm, so why don’t we use them?

The big elephants here are not in the room, but waiting around the corner…that of population and migration. Let’s look at the numbers… Our planet currently carries more than 6 billion people. Half of those 6 billion have been added in the last 50 years. The currently-accepted statistic is that 85% of these people live within 100 miles of the ocean. These people will be severely affected by rising sea levels. Some will need to move to escape the rising waters, others will not but will be crowded by those who have.

So, we have a lot to consider, but fortunately we have a few weeks…

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25. February 2009 by admin.

Much has been said recently about Global Warming. I’d like to propose a practical approach to Global Warming. Most of the current dialog revolves around whether it exists at all, whether it was caused by human activity, and whether it can be reversed. While these are interesting questions, there may not be easy yes/no answers. I’d like to postulate the following:

1. Global Warming is real.
2. We cannot reverse it.

I think #1 has been amply proved, despite the whiners who point to any given winter and ask “Where’s the global warming?”. Glaciers are melting, sea level is rising, and the weather has gotten wilder. Any idiot with eyes can see the evidence of this.

The second postulate is harder to prove, but all possible answers that we can see at this point are quite expensive and probably beyond our technical capability for decades to come. And, we don’t know whether any of these schemes will actually work.

So, now the question becomes “What can we do about it?”. I believe that humans are very adaptable, and we will find ways to adapt to a changing climate. I plan on exploring many aspects of this view in this blog.

Before we can plan a response, we must first understand the effects. We don’t need to worry too much about the Why, just the What. Once we understand the effects, we can plan a pragmatic response.

The first and most immediate effect is wilder weather. We have all seen the results of wild weather over the past few years, which included early-spring tornados in Atlanta, intense rain and flooding, drought and resulting fires, changes in migratory patterns of birds and animals, destruction of habitats, and destruction of crops.

Another, potentially more devastating, effect is the rise of sea levels. No one is sure how high they will rise, but even a rise of one foot will be disastrous in many places, such as the Maldive Islands, Bangladesh, and islands in the South Pacific. If Greenland’s ice sheets melt, the resulting salt/fresh water mix could alter the Gulf Stream, which keeps most of Northern Europe temperate. If the ice in Antarctica melts, the sea level could rise by more than 100 feet, innundating most major cities of the world.

Future posts will examine each aspect and see how it will affect us and what we might be able to do to mitigate the issues. Topics will include Population, Agriculture, Mass Migration, Buildings and Architecture, Weather, and other topics that will no doubt suggest themselves.

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